Research
Research interest
International Macroeconomics and Finance, Empirical Banking, Natural disasters, Climate change
Working Papers
The Impact of Natural Disasters on Capital Flows: Preparedness and Exposure Matter
Natural disasters cause increasing economic damage worldwide, with weather events costing around $143 billion annually. While research has examined various economic effects of disasters, their impact on international capital flows has received limited attention in the literature. Relying on a machine learning technique to classify countries by disaster risk and preparedness, this study finds that preparedness, rather than disaster risk alone, drives investment behaviour. In less prepared, low-risk countries, a 0.1 percentage point increase in the disaster-affected population reduces portfolio and other flows by 0.5-4.3 percentage points of GDP. The impact goes beyond the affected areas: external disasters increase portfolio equity inflows by 3.6 percentage points in unaffected low-risk, less prepared countries, suggesting a shift of capital to safer markets.
Green FDI and Environmental Policy Uncertainty
-joint with Joëlle Noailly
Draft available soon
Loan Dynamics in the Face of El Nino: Unveiling Patterns in Peru’s Lending Channels
-joint with Alvaro Alejandro Hinostroza Lamilla and Gerald Alex Cisneros Rojas
Draft available soon
Geoeconomic Fragmentation and Trade: The Case of Small Open Economies
-joint with Seyed Reza Yousefi
Draft available soon
Publications
Deleveraging and Foreign Currency Loan Conversion Programs in Europe
-joint with Pınar Yeşin, Comparative Economic Studies
This paper first reviews the developments in the size and composition of the European banking sectors’ balance sheets since the Global Financial Crisis and then assesses the impact of foreign currency loan conversion programs on systemic risk. Aggregate data from 2009Q1 to 2019Q3 indicate three major developments. First, the deleveraging process in Europe has been sizeable, while credit growth may be hampered in several countries. Secondly, macroprudential measures and conversion programs have only partially achieved their goal of lowering financial dollarization in Central and Eastern Europe. Lastly, systemic risk remains elevated in the non-euro area.